Over this past weekend, I was kind of playing around and posted something on Facebook in which I said that I thought that the Electoral College voting for the 2012 US Presidential Election would end up with the winner receiving 300 votes, and possibly as high as 315. I did not say who I thought the winner would be, but when asked for more information on what I was projecting, I said that I would post a prediction today, on the eve of the voting in the USA.
I have supported Mitt Romney over the past few months, although he was not my favorite of the Republicans running for President over the past year or so. Whoever the eventual Republican candidate would have been, and it turned out to be Romney, I would have felt it important to elect that person. I just do not feel that President Obama has been an effective leader. In the interest of full disclosure, I have been a Republican all of my life, but in the past decade or so, have drifted more toward Independent or perhaps Libertarian in my beliefs. When Obama was elected in 2008, I was very proud and happy that my country had chosen a man of color, I felt that it was about time, and showed that the country had moved on beyond race. In the past 4 years, there has been some drifting backward on that issue, and I am sad for that. I believe, however, that you can be against the re-election of Barack Obama and not be a racist. In too many ways, Obama supporters have seemed to have made it that if you were against Obama, it was because you were racist, and I do not believe that at all.
OK, so on with my projection for tomorrow’s US Presidential Election. I base this on an analysis of the events that are happening, not what I am hoping or wishing for. I feel that a lot of the polling out there is not accurate, due to the turnout models that are being used by the pollster. Many of the polls are oversampling Democrat voters by a factor of as much as 10 points. They are figuring polling results based on the turnout in the 2008 election, and I don’t think that is the type of turnout that we will see in the next 24 hours.
I predict that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States.
I predict that Mitt Romney will receive 315 Electoral Votes, but possibly a few less than that. 315 is my prediction, though.
Here is the electoral map as I see it (click on the map to see a larger view):
I believe that Romney will win these States:
States that are relatively safe for Romney:
These safe states give Romney 206 Electoral Votes.
Toss-up states which Romney will win:
These toss-up wins would give Romney an additional 89 Electoral Votes, bringing his sub-total to 295.
States which have been leaning Obama, which I believe Romney will take:
Pennsylvania would give Romney an additional 20 Electoral Votes, bringing his total to 315. By extension, Obama will get 223 Electoral Votes if my projection holds true.
It is a bold projection, I think. But, there are a lot of things that appear to be moving toward Romney. Romney is drawing much larger crowds than Obama is, a big turnaround from what we saw 4 years ago. Polls by the most accurate Pollster in the last 2 elections, Rasmussen, are pointing toward a razor thin edge for Romney.
The race is very close, and could swing either way. I think, though, that factors will converge and Mitt Romney will be our next president. We shall see in the next day or two, most likely.